You ideally need both a controlled diet and consistent exercise over the long run if you want to lose weight and keep it lost. Significantly changing one or the other will take weight off temporarily (and it's not just water weight - our bodies are stunningly effective at regulating water retention). However, absent a more fundamental change and balance in your lifestyle the weight will just come back.
Example: about 5 years ago I was getting significantly heavier than I wanted to be. To lose the weight in the first instance I increased my exercise a bit but decreased consumption of calories radically. (It helps that I don't mind being hungry.) I lost 35 pounds in about 7 months. However, that was plainly not a way for me to live indefinitely, and if I had just returned to my old habits I would have put the weight right back on.
Since then I have kept up with the same amount of exercise, more or less, but I did permanently modify my diet. As a consequence, unless I am not paying attention for a few weeks (hello Holidays!!!) I keep the weight within a 7 pound range. If I get over 10 pounds higher than my ideal weight, I temporarily cut way back on calories for a few weeks to get myself reset, and then I try to do a better job of watching what I eat.
Anyway, it has worked for me...
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